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Pending Home Sales Ease in February but Solidly Higher Than a Year Ago
Pending home sales were down slightly in February but remain notably above the pattern in the first half of last year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, eased 0.5 percent to 96.5 in February from 97.0 in January but is 9.2 percent above February 2011 when it was 88.4. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said we’re seeing the continuation of an uneven but higher sales pattern. “The spring home buying season looks bright because of an elevated level of contract offers so far this year,” he said. “If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years. Based on all of the factors in the current market, that’s what we’re expecting with sales rising 7 to 10 percent in 2012.”
The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.6 percent to 77.7 in February but is 18.4 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 6.5 percent to 93.8 and is 19.0 percent higher than February 2011. Pending home sales in the South fell 3.0 percent to an index of 105.8 in February but are 7.8 percent above a year ago. In the West the index declined 2.6 percent in February to 99.3 and is 1.8 percent below February 2011.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.
NOTE: Existing-home sales for March will be reported April 19 and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be released April 26. The Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey, covering transactions in 2011, is scheduled for March 29; all release times are 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.
REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark which may be used only by real estate professionals who are members of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribe to its strict Code of Ethics. Not all real estate agents are REALTORS®. All REALTORS® are members of NAR.
Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates Improving, Rents Firming
Washington, DC, February 24, 2012
According to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast, all of the major commercial real estate sectors are seeing improved fundamentals, but multifamily housing is becoming a landlord’s market commanding bigger rent increases. These trends also are confirmed in NAR’s recent quarterly Commercial Real Estate Market Survey.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said vacancy rates are improving in all of the major commercial real estate sectors. “Sustained job creation is benefiting commercial real estate sectors by increasing demand for space,” he said. “Vacancy rates are steadily falling. Leasing is on the rise and rents are showing signs of strengthening, especially in the apartment market where rents are rising the fastest.”
NAR forecasts commercial vacancy rates over the next year to decline 0.4 percentage point in the office sector, 0.8 point in industrial real estate, 0.9 point in the retail sector and 0.2 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.
“Household formation appears to be rising from pent-up demand,” Yun said. “The tight apartment market should encourage more apartment construction. Otherwise, rent increases could further accelerate in the near-to-intermediate term.”
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors® shows a notable gain in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of 297 local market experts.1
The SIOR index, measuring the impact of 10 variables, jumped 8.3 percentage points to 63.8 in the fourth quarter, following a gain of 0.6 percentage point in the third quarter. The index remains well below the level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace, which was last seen in the third quarter of 2007.
Most market indicators posted advances in the fourth quarter, but 71 percent of respondents said leasing activity is below historic levels in their market – an improvement from 83 percent in the third quarter. Only 29 percent report there is ample sublease space available.
Office and industrial space remains a tenant’s market – 87 percent of participants feel that tenants are getting a range of benefits ranging from moderate concessions to deep rent discounts.
Construction activity is still low, with 95 percent of experts reporting it is below normal, and 83 percent said it is a buyers’ market for development acquisitions; prices are below construction costs in 78 percent of markets.
Participants are broadly expecting stronger conditions for the current quarter, with two out of three expecting market improvement.
NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook2 offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc.,3 a source of commercial real estate performance information.
Office Markets
Vacancy rates in the office sector are projected to fall from 16.4 percent in the current quarter to 16.0 percent in the first quarter of 2013.
The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.5 percent; New York City, at 10.0 percent; and New Orleans, 12.4 percent.
After rising 1.6 percent in 2011, office rents should increase another 1.9 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2013. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is forecast at 20.1 million square feet in 2012 and 28.1 million next year.
Industrial Markets
Industrial vacancy rates are likely to decline from 11.7 percent in the first quarter of this year to 10.9 percent in the first quarter of 2013.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 4.8 percent; Los Angeles, 4.9 percent; and Miami at 7.6 percent.
Annual industrial rent is expected to rise 1.8 percent in 2012 and 2.3 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space nationally is seen at 40.6 million square feet this year and 57.7 million in 2013.
Retail Markets
Retail vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 11.9 percent in the current quarter to 11.0 percent in the first quarter of 2013.
Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.6 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., at 5.1 percent; and Long Island, N.Y., at 5.4 percent.
Average retail rent should rise 0.7 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2013. Net absorption of retail space is projected at 9.9 million square feet this year and 23.9 million in 2013.
Multifamily Markets
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is likely to see vacancy rates drop from 4.7 percent in the first quarter to 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013; multifamily vacancy rates below 5 percent generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.
Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are New York City, 1.8 percent; Minneapolis and Portland, Ore., each at 2.5 percent; and San Jose, Calif., at 2.7 percent.
After rising 2.2 percent last year, average apartment rent is expected to increase 3.8 percent in 2012 and another 4.0 percent next year. Multifamily net absorption is forecast at 209,900 units this year and 223,600 in 2013.
The Commercial Real Estate Outlook is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
Approximately 78,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 232,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Seniors, Young Adults to Influence Housing Markets (March 13) In a new report, researchers analyze key demographic trends and their likely influence on housing and homeownership.
Aging baby boomers and their echo boomer children will significantly impact trends in the nation’s housing market over the next 20 years. In a new report released by the Bipartisan Policy Center, “Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets,” researchers at the National Association of Realtors®, The Urban Institute, and the University of Southern California analyze key demographic trends and their likely influence on housing and homeownership in the U.S.
Over the next two decades, the aging baby boomer generation will swell the nation’s senior population by 30 million. That demographic shift will likely help increase the supply of housing, since people over age 65 typically release much more housing than they absorb.
“The Northeast and Midwest are most likely to see a large number of older homeowners selling their homes to younger homeowners as the baby boomers age,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “This increased supply could mean additional buying opportunities for echo boomers. That generation will absorb 75-80 percent of the available inventory of owner-occupied housing by 2020.”
The echo boom generation includes nearly 65 million people born between 1981 and 1995. NAR’s analysis illustrates the potential impact of economic and housing policy on this generation’s demand for housing as they come of age.
“Housing, jobs and the economy are inextricably connected,” said Yun. “A strong recovery with favorable housing market conditions would encourage substantial growth in echo boomer households, which would help absorb the current vacant inventory and stabilize conditions for residential construction. Under a reasonable ‘middle’ recovery scenario, approximately 12 million new households will be formed over the next decade, requiring construction of up to 15 million new housing units.”
NAR President Moe Veissi noted that current market trends favor would-be homeowners of all ages. “As the supply of rental housing continues to fall, rents are increasing,” said Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami. “At the same time, affordability for homeowners is at a record high. For buyers who qualify and are ready to assume the responsibilities of owning a home, opportunity is knocking.”
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
February 2011 existing-home sales, which are down
from the previous month, in his national press
conference on March 21, 2011. Check this out
